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speculators in party mood

EUR / USD contracts speculative accounts (source: CME).

speculative market participants have withdrawn from the dollar's confidence. They are increasingly turning to an appreciation of the Euro, as current statistics of the futures exchange in Chicago. The number of EUR / USD purchase contracts currently exceeds the EUR / USD sales contracts to +22,901 units. Before that was the positive balance was +4109. On 11 January 2011 had all spoken for a promising dollar exchange rate forecast 2011 with a balance of -45 182 contracts.

The abrupt reversal of the speculative accounts is fundamentally underpinned by a possible end to the debt crisis. This would allow repayment periods for Greece and Ireland up to 30 years will be extended to underpin sustained fiscal consolidation. In addition, it is likely that the EU will decide at the summit in March 2011 to reduce the amount of interest for Greece and Ireland.

The very different monetary policy of the European Central Bank (ECB) and the American Federal Reserve (Fed) also justifies the appreciation of the EUR / USD exchange rate in recent weeks. While the Fed monetary floodgates wide open in order to achieve a reduction in unemployment, the ECB signaled a willingness to increase its key interest rate.

Structural imbalances in the United States exist in all areas of national debt and trade balance. The so-called "twin deficits" have emerged since 2000, a durable load factor for the U.S. currency. Currently in particular the escalating government deficit continues preparing for concern. Predicts the International Monetary Fund (IMF) that the general government debt Climbing the U.S. to 110 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) by 2016 will.

is currently the dollar traded at € 1.36. Many currency traders predict a rise to EUR / USD 1.40 and above. The setting in regard to the future development of the Euro dollar exchange rate has changed abruptly in recent weeks. From a technical point of view is crucial for the short-term upward trend, whether the euro is a resistance at $ 1.3780 skipping.