at the Futures markets has improved a U-turn from speculative market participants to forecast € 2011th It is understood that institutional investors such as hedge funds instantly from a revaluation of the European single currency against the U.S. dollar exchange rate. The € USD exchange rate climbed over the mark of 1.36 and reached a two-month high of $ 1.3622.
The number of EUR / USD purchase contracts compared to the sales contracts of speculative accounts in a futures market in Chicago (CME) has increased. Thus, the positive balance was in the past week +4109 contracts. In the previous week, a negative balance of -45 182 contracts in 2011 had forecast a weak euro can still justify.
The turnaround in regard to the future euro dollar exchange rate is directly related to the monetary policy meeting of the European Central Bank (ECB) on 12/13. January 2011. ECB President Trichet be threatened with an increase in the benchmark interest rate if the inflation rate should rise. The ECB's key rate since May 2009 lie at 1.00 percent, consumer prices in the euro area climbed by 2.2 percent in December 2010.
The prospect of a tighter monetary policy by the European Central Bank has also changed the forecast € 2011, most foreign exchange strategist. On the other side of the Atlantic remain the monetary floodgates of U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed) wide open. With a Increase in the Fed's benchmark interest rate, which is located at 0 to 0.25 percent since December 2008, is expected until 2012.
So is the Fed with a so-called dual mandate safe. While the ECB one side to the price stability in the euro area, takes care of the U.S. central bank has also stopped by the legislature for full employment ensured. The U.S. unemployment rate was 9.4 percent justifies the low interest rate policy and thus the positive prognosis € 2011.
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