Slow Growing Breast Tumor

name change

If a stay this year, the worst weather events only with a masculine connotation in memory, has a reason: the baptism of the low-pressure areas are 2011 men by name. High pressure area remains Andreas for as yet the weather map on the right side, but already making broad his colleagues Benjamin, Christian and Dieter.

Masculine surface chart from today, Tuesday at 00 UTC

By switching to the West the weather is now low pressure influence the weather-determining element of the coming days and thus be equally overdone some men's names. Yesterday's aforementioned West Wind Drift (also called West slide) ensures that the coldest days of the year (namely those now) are clearly too warm. The massive warm advection of the approaching lows Dieter provides an increase of the snow line to 1500 to 2000 m.

exceptionally warm: the mild West in the amount of flow brings 1500 m an up to 10 degrees positive temperature deviation . In the deeper layers of the atmosphere, the deviation will be less - stable conditions provide for a small mixing by the wind. The rain will, however, also "warm".

unpleasant side effect of warm advection (short: SSC) from Wednesday evening through early Friday are sustained moderate to heavy rain.

grid point of the JRC in Salzburg: the cooler air seeps can be seen just how massive the SSC on 15 (Saturday) at its peak (10 degrees above average). On the model grid point, it rains on 13 and 14 35 mm (green main run). Colder it is the first in a week. What is striking is the agreement all runs up there.

Dieter brings: a medium-large rain event
On the surface weather map is low-Dieter centered just east view of Newfoundland, already well on the satellite image shows the giant hot-air shield, the front system right pushes. Downstream of the low seeps into Europe even a colder air, which, however, soon emerged from the heated air.

satellite image of the northern hemisphere. The relevant European pressure formations are also hand nachgetragen We, the relative air flows (red = warm, blue = cold). The ultimate low-pressure system lies with its already warm front over the British Isles.

On a warm front from the west, the snow would bearer to be if everything would run at 10 to 15 degrees colder temperatures. It will rain to 2000 meters up, the frozen soils absorb less water than melting in the spring or summer. In addition, the existing snow will wegtauen it (although snow melts faster when it is dry), so other than the warm front rain still comes to the melt water.


Where, when, how much
Considering the precipitation maps (GFS and ECMWF) is the uniform distribution pattern, but also the differences in the Menge.Das European model assumes a maximum of 50 mm in the Salzkammergut region during the GFS already twice the amount of "threat".

Expected precipitation from Wednesday evening to Friday morning: the focus, according to the ECMWF 12z run Alps on the north side.

means the green spot in the JRC 90 mm in 36 hours, will also for the Czech Republic, and calculate the area of the Carpathian (Slovakia / March area) large quantities.

similar picture in the GFS 12z: the sets are even higher (up to 90 mm). Sosnt are the patterns similar.

course, solve the global models to the regional differences are not as clear as the example, the fine-mesh model, the WRF tun.Müssen not. For that, models like the WRF are available (= WRF Weather Research on Forecasting Model, developed by the "surprise, NOAA).

The UBIMET-WRF has brought the expected rainfall maxima clearly. Of course, the GFS-WRF is also based on the "extreme" side in terms of rainfall. As an objective and thus good meteorologist, however, should all be included to model data available in the forecast.

The maxima are in the west storage locations. be affected are the Black Forest, the Bernese and Glarus Alps, the Austrian Alps from the Bregenz Forest north of the Karwendel Mountains to the Emperor, and to the east of the Salzkammergut to the north of the Bavarian Forest.

Mitteleuropaauschnitt 12 km resolution

Although the finer 4 km - model exaggerates the amounts of security, but regional differences by the topographic effect are even better advantage than in the 12 km - version. The Rhine Valley (in the Lee of Appenzell) Located gotten significantly less rainfall than the exposed locations on Lake Constance. Similar to "dry" it is in the upper Inn valley, the Wipptal and in the regions south of the Alps verhalten.Ob the eastern Upper Austria is so clearly gotten less is to be seen.

UBIMET advanced WRF (ARW) 4 km resolution - it's best! comes

The above-mentioned problem with the products, if you look at the rain keeps focus in mind, this is still a problem. The level of Saalach Salza will swell up considerably and make sure as to burst its banks. On average, in January in the affected Regine expected 50 to 100 mm rainfall - an amount that may fall during this event within 36 hours. The rivers and streams are so geometrically designed it to transport smaller quantities of water ...
One can therefore hope that the expected rainfall adapt to the ECMWF and not to the JRC.

The ZAMG warns ...

The ZAMG - warning (issued Tuesday evening) is based on the ECMWF or the internally used INCA (Integrated Nowcasting through Comprehensive Analysis). The warnings are therefore compared to the JRC on the conservative side. Maximum of 65 mm in Upper Austria in the warning is the question. The possible 100 mm + in the Bregenzerwald see this warning, no entrance, Vorarlberg is (still) green. The UWZ will tomorrow publish the warning - the warning card is then found at www.uwz.at.

ZAMG warning for Thursday

also the ECMWF model, as a data base of a WRF can be used. The Consorzio Lamma (Laboratorio di monitoraggio Modellistica ambientale e) from Tuscany does something like that (resolution 7 km please!) and this card also kindly published on its website .

And on top of the screen can be seen that even the ECMWF (on other topography) certainly potential for greater amounts of precipitation in the western states: the 24 addition to Friday 00 UTC shows a maximum of 50 mm and more at the Arlberg, and a similar pattern to the east. Interestingly, the Inn district is almost empty-handed, while in Upper Austria it stopped raining.



to launch a small paragraph on present-day fog in Innsbruck:

poet high smoke clears in the afternoon and the sun appears.

falls at just the afternoon, a weak westerly wind nebula (the moist air in the lowest layers condensed). The saturated temperature curve drops below the freezing point, when suddenly a little stronger wind rises by 2 degrees (green line in the station history).

is The Mist (see webcam image by 17 clock) and the visibility is only a few m. This weak east wind is blowing at a constant Temperature of 1.5 degrees. When the wind turns back on West things clear up again and by 22 h, the view is again optimal.
elbows at the time the fog has increased outflow (not shown) of 6 m / s.Im Wipptal (+7 degrees) was also slightly föhnig and mix with the saddle mountain (-3 degrees) dry
. (Spikes in elbows 36km / h on SAB
65 km / h, the PAH least 76 km / h).

The trough axis through this evening (18z), made off Kofel noticeable jump with a wind from south to northwest, which has probably had an impact on the wind conditions in the valley.
This is just a side note, just because of fog so rarely found in the Tyrolean capital.

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References:
surface weather map (1): wetterpate.de
temperature deviation from the mean at 850 hPa (2): wetterzentrale.de / GFS12z
grid point 48 ° E/13 ° N (3): wetterzentrale.de/GFS12z
Satellite northern hemisphere (4): http://aviationweather.gov/obs/sat/intl/ NOAA modified by alpen.wetter
precipitation maps, provided by UBIMET: ECMWF12z (5), GFS 12z (6) , UBIMET ARW 12 km (7), UBIMET ARW 4 km (8)
ZAMG warning (9): screenshot of 11/12/2011 at 23:30
forecast maps of the Lamma ECMWF WRFs (10): http : / / www.lamma.rete.toscana.it
Webcam images Innbrucke airport (11, 13, 14)
Station History University of Innsbruck (12): imgi.uibk.ac.at modified by alpen.wetter